Using a GIS Model to Identify Internally Drained Areas and Runoff Contribution in a Glaciated Watershed1

Macholl, Jacob A., Katherine A. Clancy, and Paul M. McGinley, 2011. Using a GIS Model to Identify Internally Drained Areas and Runoff Contribution in a Glaciated Watershed. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):114‐125. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00495.x Abstract: Glaciated watersheds are not easily delineated using geographic information systems’ elevation‐based algorithms, especially where stream networks are disconnected and there are large regions of internally drained areas. This paper presents the results of an analysis using the Potential Contributing Source Area (PCSA) model to identify potential contributing areas, defined as areas from which runoff is physically capable of reaching a drainage network. The investigation was conducted to define the potential contributing areas in a glaciated region of northwest Wisconsin. The curve number (CN) method was used to predict runoff volumes in the watershed. The streamflows of four tributaries were measured and the runoff portion of the hydrograph quantified to be compared with runoff estimates calculated using the potential contributing areas and the traditional catchment area. Runoff producing events occurred, but the use of area‐weighted CN values was unsuccessful in modeling runoff due to all precipitation depths during the study period falling below the initial abstraction. A distributed CN approach provided runoff estimates that were generally better using the potential contributing areas compared with using the traditional catchment area. The extent of the minimum contributing area, estimated for a range of precipitation events, was found to be substantially less than the potential contributing areas, suggesting that the PCSA model delimits the maximum boundary of potential contributing areas.     

Hydrate formation during CO2 transport: Predicting water content in the fluid phase in equilibrium with the CO2-hydrate

In order to evaluate the risk of hydrate formation in CO₂ transport one has to be able to predict the water content in the fluid phase in equilibrium with the CO₂-hydrate. A literature review has identified some knowledge gaps, for example, there are no results available at temperatures lower than 243.15 K (?30 °C); and none of the models found in literature predicts the water content with high accuracy. A model based on equality of water fugacity in fluid and hydrate phase is presented here and used for the predictions of water content in equilibrium with hydrates. Although this model gives better accuracy in the overall temperature and pressure ranges of measurements than the models found in the literature, it is not accurate enough to satisfy the requirements of CO₂ transport. The simulation results also show that it is possible to form hydrate at low water content, such as x_w = 50 vppm, if temperature is low enough. In order to verify the results and improve the model accuracy further, more experimental data in a larger temperature and pressure region are required.     

Effects of Climate and Land Cover on Hydrology in the Southeastern U.S.: Potential Impacts on Watershed Planning

The hydrologic response to statistically downscaled general circulation model simulations of daily surface climate and land cover through 2099 was assessed for the Apalachicola‐Chattahoochee‐Flint River Basin located in the southeastern United States. Projections of climate, urbanization, vegetation, and surface‐depression storage capacity were used as inputs to the Precipitation‐Runoff Modeling System to simulate projected impacts on hydrologic response. Surface runoff substantially increased when land cover change was applied. However, once the surface depression storage was added to mitigate the land cover change and increases of surface runoff (due to urbanization), the groundwater flow component then increased. For hydrologic studies that include projections of land cover change (urbanization in particular), any analysis of runoff beyond the change in total runoff should include effects of stormwater management practices as these features affect flow timing and magnitude and may be useful in mitigating land cover change impacts on streamflow. Potential changes in water availability and how biota may respond to changes in flow regime in response to climate and land cover change may prove challenging for managers attempting to balance the needs of future development and the environment. However, these models are still useful for assessing the relative impacts of climate and land cover change and for evaluating tradeoffs when managing to mitigate different stressors.     

Benthic algal production across lake size gradients: interactions among morphometry, nutrients, and light

Attached algae play a minor role in conceptual and empirical models of lake ecosystem function but paradoxically form the energetic base of food webs that support a wide variety of fishes. To explore the apparent mismatch between perceived limits on contributions of periphyton to whole-lake primary production and its importance to consumers, we modeled the contribution of periphyton to whole-ecosystem primary production across lake size, shape, and nutrient gradients. The distribution of available benthic habitat for periphyton is influenced by the ratio of mean depth to maximum depth (DR = z/ z(max)). We modeled total phytoplankton production from water-column nutrient availability, z, and light. Periphyton production was a function of light-saturated photosynthesis (BPmax) and light availability at depth. The model demonstrated that depth ratio (DR) and light attenuation strongly determined the maximum possible contribution of benthic algae to lake production, and the benthic proportion of whole-lake primary production (BPf) declined with increasing nutrients. Shallow lakes (z < or =5 m) were insensitive to DR and were dominated by either benthic or pelagic primary productivity depending on trophic status. Moderately deep oligotrophic lakes had substantial contributions by benthic primary productivity at low depth ratios and when maximum benthic photosynthesis was moderate or high. Extremely large, deep lakes always had low fractional contributions of benthic primary production. An analysis of the world's largest lakes showed that the shapes of natural lakes shift increasingly toward lower depth ratios with increasing depth, maximizing the potential importance of littoral primary production in large-lake food webs. The repeatedly demonstrated importance of periphyton to lake food webs may reflect the combination of low depth ratios and high light penetration characteristic of large, oligotrophic lakes that in turn lead to substantial contributions of periphyton to autochthonous production.     

Rats on the run: removal of alien terrestrial predators affects bush rat behaviour

Predators can strongly influence the microhabitat use and foraging behaviour of prey. In a large-scale replicated field experiment in East Gippsland, Australia, we tested the effects of reduced alien red fox (Vulpes vulpes) and alien wild dog (Canis lupus familiaris) abundance (treatment) on native bush rat (Rattus fuscipes) behaviour. Bush rats are exposed to two main guilds of predators, namely mammalian carnivores and birds of prey. Tracking rat movements using the spool-and-line technique revealed that, in treatment sites, rats used ground cover, which provides shelter from predators, less often than at unmanipulated fox and wild dog abundance (non-treatment sites). In treatment sites, rats more frequently moved on logs where they would have been exposed to hunting foxes and dogs than in non-treatment sites. Furthermore, in treatments, rats showed a preference for understorey but not in non-treatments. Hence, bush rats adapted their behaviour to removal of alien terrestrial predators. Giving-up densities (GUDs) indicated no treatment effects on the marginal feeding rate of bush rats. Interestingly, GUDs were higher in open patches than in sheltered patches, suggesting higher perceived predation risk of bush rats during foraging at low versus high cover. The lack of treatment effects on GUDs but the clear response of bush rats to cover may be explained by the impact of predators other than foxes and wild dogs.     

Groundwater management and socio-economic responses

The socio-economic aspects of groundwater development and management are briefly examined and set against a background of highly technical management. The variability of socio-economic responses to groundwater and the problems of engaging large numbers of individual users are highlighted. The paper argues that social, institutional and political factors are the primary obstacles to sustainable management of the world's groundwater resources.     

Near-term forecasts of stream temperature using deep learning and data assimilation in support of management decisions

Deep learning (DL) models are increasingly used to make accurate hindcasts of management-relevant variables, but they are less commonly used in forecasting applications. Data assimilation (DA) can be used for forecasts to leverage real-time observations, where the difference between model predictions and observations today is used to adjust the model to make better predictions tomorrow. In this use case, we developed a process-guided DL and DA approach to make 7-day probabilistic forecasts of daily maximum water temperature in the Delaware River Basin in support of water management decisions. Our modeling system produced forecasts of daily maximum water temperature with an average root mean squared error (RMSE) from 1.1 to 1.4°C for 1-day-ahead and 1.4 to 1.9°C for 7-day-ahead forecasts across all sites. The DA algorithm marginally improved forecast performance when compared with forecasts produced using the process-guided DL model alone (0%–14% lower RMSE with the DA algorithm). Across all sites and lead times, 65%–82% of observations were within 90% forecast confidence intervals, which allowed managers to anticipate probability of exceedances of ecologically relevant thresholds and aid in decisions about releasing reservoir water downstream. The flexibility of DL models shows promise for forecasting other important environmental variables and aid in decision-making.     

Impacts of Variable Climate and Effluent Flows on the Transboundary Santa Cruz Aquifer

Assessing groundwater resources in the arid and semiarid borderlands of the United States and Mexico represents a challenge for land and water managers, particularly in the Transboundary Santa Cruz Aquifer (TSCA). Population growth, residential construction, and industrial activities have increased groundwater demand in the TSCA, in addition to wastewater treatment and sanitation demands. These activities, coupled with climate variability, influence the hydrology of the TSCA and emphasize the need for groundwater assessment tools for decision‐making purposes. This study assesses the impacts of changes in groundwater demand, effluent discharge, and climate uncertainties within the TSCA from downstream of the Nogales International Wastewater Treatment Plant to the northern boundary of the Santa Cruz Active Management Area. We use a conceptual water budget model to analyze the long‐term impact of the different components of potential recharge and water losses within the aquifer. Modeling results project a future that ranges from severe long‐term drying to positive wetting. This research improves the understanding of the impact of natural and anthropogenic variables on water sustainability, with an accessible methodology that can be globally applied.     

The magnetic compass mechanism of birds and its possible association with the shifting course directions of migrants

Summary Many birds of the northern hemisphere shift their migratory course to more southerly directions when moving from northern to southern latitudes. Birds from Central Europe, for example, change their course from SW to S or from SE to S respectively (Fig. 1). This also seems to apply to some other animals.The hypothesis presented here explains the observed shifts in migratory direction on the basis of changes in the parameters of the earth's magnetic field and hence would make a genetic fixation of shifts in the migratory direction unnecessary.To determine the direction of migration birds do not refer to the polarity of the magnetic field but to its dip (=). According to the hypothesis presented here, the birds, however, do not refer to the direction of dip as previously believed but to the individual apparent angle of dip (=), this angle changes depending on the heading of the bird (see Fig. 3 and Eq. 1). Maintaining a species specific or population specific the bird will move in its predetermined migratory direction. Changes in the dip of the earth's magnetic field correspond to changes in latitude. According to the hypothesis with fixed, the migratory direction will change when the dip changes. Given the hypothesis and the parameters of the earth's field theoretical migratory paths of birds between summer and winter quarters may be calculated (Figs. 8–11). The calculated tracks and the actually observed migratory routes agree well. This is also confirmed by radar and other observations of migratory directions in areas of different dip angles (Fig. 13). Displacing migrating birds to areas of smaller dip angles (= lower magnetic latitudes) results in predeterminable shifts in the birds migratory direction (Figs. 5, 6). The hypothesis also accounts for the so far unexplained orientation behaviour of transequatorial migrants under the magnetic equator.A very simple model of this hypothetical compass mechanism may be based on the assumption of the sensor axis is supposed to correspond to the apparent angle of dip when moving in the migratory direction. In this position the difference between the apparent angle of dip and the angle of the sensor is zero. Any change in the direction of movement, however, will result in a difference leading to a response of an assumed receptor. When maintaining the zero difference the bird invariably sticks to its migratory course. The proposed mechanism is a null instrument unaffected by changes in field intensity and not depending on the measurement of absolute values.